Missouri's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed in
June to its highest level since 1994, as payrolls saw only small
seasonal employment gains, according to the Missouri Department of
Economic Development. The adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 5.4
percent, up from last month's 4.8 percent, and the highest it has
been since February 1994.
Unemployment usually increases in June, as some students and other
summer job seekers don't immediately find work. The increase in
the unadjusted unemployment rate between May and June this year was
0.9 percentage points, however, much higher than the usual June
increase. The unadjusted rate for June is also 5.4 percent.
Joseph L. Driskill, director of the Department of Economic
Development, pointed out that these numbers probably overstate any
underlying increase in unemployment, since May data had shown an
unexpectedly large decrease. The seasonally adjusted June rate is
only two-tenths of a point higher than it was in March and April.
"What these numbers show is that we still have a great deal of
uncertainty in Missouri's employment conditions as we move through
this recession," said Driskill. "Our seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate has been see-sawing around an upward trend since
late last year. Irregular movements in unemployment are not unusual,
particularly in late recession/early recovery periods.
"While we are hopeful that a period recovery is just ahead for
our state's economy, fluctuating unemployment numbers provide
evidence that a period of sustained economic growth is not likely to
occur for a while yet."
Driskill pointed out that Missouri's numbers show and increase in
construction jobs and a leveling off of job declines in the
manufacturing sector.
The national rate has also been fluctuating around an upward trend,
as well. It fell in the early months of 2002, when the economy
seemed to have turned the corner, but has tended to go back up
since, as recovery seems more uncertain.
Since the summer of 2001, Missouri's unemployment rate has been
below the national rate, often by more than half a point. The June
hike in the Missouri rate narrowed the difference, bringing Missouri's
rate within half a point of the nation's 5.9 percent rate. The
national unadjusted rate for June is 6.0 percent.
Nonfarm payroll employment remained essentially unchanged in June.
Unadjusted data showed a gain of 1,000 jobs. For a change, the
goods-producing industries did well, with construction employment
going up by 5,800 jobs and manufacturing gaining 1,400. Although
individual manufacturing industry gains were small, more industries
added jobs than cut them. Increases in employment, particularly in
construction, are usual in June, so the seasonally adjusted data
show smaller increases. Construction employment went up by 2,200,
while manufacturing gained a scant 300. Still, this represents
improvement. It was the first gain that construction has seen since
small increases last November and December. Manufacturing employment
appears stable, after losing more than 14 percent of its employment
in the 45 months ending in February 2002.
The service-producing industries, on the other hand, did not fare
particularly well in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, losses in
business services, engineering and management services, finance, and
transportation and utilities more than offset gains in some other
industries, resulting in a net loss of 4,700 in the private
service-producing sector.
The unadjusted data show the usual seasonal decreases in educational
employment, in both the public and private sectors. Eating and
drinking places employment was down by 1,000 jobs, not seasonally
adjusted, probably the result of summer cutbacks at food service
operations in schools and colleges. Employment was up seasonally at
hotels and in amusement and recreation services. Employment gains in
wholesale trade were more than offset by losses in transportation
and utilities.
Over the past year, nonfarm payrolls have lost 60,600 jobs,
including 19,000 in manufacturing. Construction employment is down
by 8,500. The private service-producing sector has lost 29,900 jobs,
led by the 7,500-job drop in business services but spread through
most other industries as well.
Counties with the highest unemployment rates (unadjusted)
during June were: Wayne 11.6; Douglas 11.5; Pemiscot 11.0; St. Louis
City 10.0; Madison and Washington 9.9; New Madrid and Reynolds 9.6;
Wright 9.4; and Linn 9.1.
Counties with the lowest unemployment rates (unadjusted) during June
were: Nodaway 2.3; Boone 2.6; Atchison 3.2; Putnam 3.3; Adair and
Phelps 3.4; and Lewis and Sullivan 3.5.
Map 2. Change in Unemployment Rate
June 2001 to 2002, Seasonally Unadjusted.
Source: Labor Market Information,
Missouri Department of Economic Development
